Split Decision: AARP Poll Finds 50+ Voters Favor Republicans in 3, Democrats in 2 of 5 Most Competitive NY Congressional Races

Older NY Voters Could Help Decide Control of the U.S. House of Representatives

AARP New York released a 2024 election survey from five of New York’s most competitive congressional districts, which may determine the party that controls the U.S. House of Representatives. The survey reveals that candidates for president and state races should pay close attention to New Yorkers ages 50 and older, who comprise an outsized portion of the electorate.

In the race for the House, Republican candidates running in the 4th, 17th and 19th districts are the choices of older voters, according to the poll conducted in September. In the 18th and 22nd districts, Democrats are the choices of voters 50-plus.

Seventy-five percent of voters 50-plus in those five congressional districts say they are “extremely motivated” to cast a ballot in November, ccompared to only 54% of those under 50 who indicate they are “extremely motivated” to vote.

The poll also found that issues such as Social Security, keeping aging loved ones in their own homes for as long as possible and bringing down the high-cost prescription drugs are extremely important to most voters 50-plus when deciding their vote.

“Voters 50 and older are the largest and most engaged voting bloc in this election, and their votes will make the difference in the race for Congress this year,” said Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director. “In the 2022 mid-term elections, older voters accounted for 63% of all New York voters. Candidates need to focus on the issues that matter most to older voters, from protecting Social Security and Medicare to supporting family caregivers to ensure they can keep their aging loved ones in their own homes, where they prefer to be.”

In the presidential contest, a majority of voters ages 50 and older in the 4th, 17th, 18th and 19th congressional districts say they intend to vote for former President Donald Trump (R) over Vice President Kamala Harris (D) in November. Trump leads Harris by 15 or more points in these districts in a head-to-head contest. Harris is the choice of most 50-plus voters in the 22nd district.

The 4th Congressional District is in Nassau County on Long Island, while the four others form a contiguous region stretching from New York City’s northern suburbs to the Mid-Hudson Valley and Central New York.

In the individual congressional races in each district, voters indicated they would definitely or probably choose the Republican candidate in the 4th, 17th and 19th districts. The results:

· 4th: incumbent Anthony D’Esposito (R) 56.1% vs Laura Gillen (D) 37.2%
· 17th: incumbent Michael Lawler (R) 54.1% vs Mondaire Jones (D) 37.4%
· 19th: incumbent Marc Molinaro (R) 51.1% vs Josh Riley (D) 41.5%

The Democrat was the definite or probable choice in the 18th and 22nd districts. The results:

· 18th: incumbent Pat Ryan (D) 53.7% vs Alison Esposito (R) 40.6%
· 22nd: John Mannion (D) 53.2% vs incumbent Brandon Williams (R) 37.3%

Older voters are the highest-turnout demographic, and in the five congressional districts surveyed, 62% to 67% of voters were 50 and older in the 2022 elections. Earlier this year, an AARP survey found that Social Security, family caregiving, and economic concerns were critical issues for older voters, no matter their party affiliation. In a tight election year, candidates need to pay attention to the issues that matter most to older voters.

Other key takeaways from the poll among voters 50 and older include:

· SOCIAL SECURITY: When deciding their vote this November, 73% of respondents in the five congressional districts said they were much more likely to vote for a candidate who supported making sure workers get the Social Security they paid into.

· FAMILY CAREGIVING: More than seven in ten voters (79%) 50-plus across the five districts say they are more likely to support a candidate that advocated for supporting family caregivers who are helping loved ones live independently in their homes. Further, more than one-quarter (28%) of respondents in these districts considered themselves to be a family caregiver, providing assistance to an older or ill adult, or someone with a disability.

· COST AND IMPORTATION OF PRESCRIPTION DRUGS: Seventy-three percent of respondents said the cost of prescription drugs is “extremely important” or “very important” in deciding their vote this November. Additionally, 83% of voters surveyed say they support the safe importation of prescription drugs from Canada to New York State as a way to combat the out-of-control prices for certain medications.

 The survey of 1,231 registered, likely voters 50-plus was conducted September 10-22 via occam^TM by AlphaROC.

View the full poll results here.